Tuesday, April 1, 2008

Population Sustainability in Australia

Unlike Singapore, Australia has ample land however a lot of this land is not arable or inhabitable. Australia's current population is around 21 million which has increased by nearly 12% since 1996. These figures tend not to include people temporarily overseas, however, include temporary residents and travellers. 

As far as a sustainable population goes I think the far reaches is about 25 million. However this is hard to judge because Australia is currently in a very deep seated labour shortage. For example we have several visa programs and currently our yearly intake of skilled migrants is around 150,000. These policies are usually contract work. However, there has been discussion about bringing in 15,000 unemployed construction workers from the US to fill the whole in this field as currently we are also in a major housing shortage. This shortage is not brought on my having too few houses maybe in Canberra but instead having to few affordable houses. For example in Melbourne's mid North-western suburb of Essendon the rent to purchase desparity is enormous. You can be lucky to rent a property in this area for 250-300 a week yet to purchase a similiar property would  cost the purchaser around 800,000 dollars. 

In relation to housing to become more sustainable we have to adopt a high density housing plan. However, this notion is not breed into the Australian pysche as we have a dream to live on a 1/4 acre block relatively close to the city. This is not the reality though. As the cities expand the public infrastructure doesn't expand with it. Sorry for all the Melbourne inferences but I have not lived in Canberra long enough. For example one of the fastest growing Melbourne regions is the outer north east. In this area most people are middle income earners however this corridor has grown beyond its capacity where the local councils and state government have proposed a new train line for the last 40 years. Yet now its inconceivable as the population density does not leave room for public infrastructure. 

Like Singapore during peak hour all forms of public transport that include buses, trams and trains are  over crowded by at least 30%. Its incredible with the increase in petrol prices over the past couple of years there has been a flow on affect with an increase in public transport patronage. In Melbourne alone there has been at least a 25% increase in patronage in the last 2 years alone on at least half of its metropolitan lines. In response to this substantial increase services have not been increase instead the Brumby Government trailed a program to relieve peak hour congestion on two of Melbourne's fastest growing lines. This intiaitive gave free travel to patrons on this line who arrived in the CBD before 7am. I actually do not know the outcome of this trial but I think it was successful. If so they were planning to role it out on all metro lines with in a year I think.  

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